NOTE! This report includes all Eureka precincts but one.
FOURTH DISTRICT SUPERVISOR
Bass 56.21%
Neely 43.10%
FIFTH DISTRICT SUPERVISOR
Cleary 48.47%
Sundberg 51.24%
ASSESSOR
Rodoni 40.53%
Wilson 59.25%
DA
Gallegos 45.82%
Jackson 53.97%
EUREKA MAYOR
Jager 51.95%
LaVallee 43.09%
Spalding 4.65%
EUREKA FIRST WARD
Glass 42.44%
Brady 57.31%
EUREKA THIRD WARD
Kuhnel 42.18%
Newman 43.72%
Manns 13.86%
MEASURE N
Yes 68.76%
No 31.24%
MEASURE O
Yes 54.81%
No 45.19%
This article appears in The Creepy Carson.
Same people in front, but getting tighter
Neeley’s toast.
Gallegos could still pull it out. He was behind 60-40 in the mail-ins, but he’s consistently running ahead 55-45 among those who voted at the polls. There’s about 75% of the vote yet to be tabulated, most of which is from the polls (of course there are still the mail-ins that arrived today, but not that many).
So if Gallegos continues to run 10 points ahead in the returns from the precincts, he’ll win comfortably. But I expect it to be a bit narrower than that, as it is my recollection that some of the late-reporting precincts tend to come in more conservative.
No Gallegos is done. I don’t think Scotia, Fortuna or Ferndale have reported in yet, and those areas will be strongly Jackson. The gap will narrow, but I think Gallegos is done.
What’s more profound is that Bonnie Neely, after 24 years on the Supes, is done. That’s historic.
Reporta: You could be right, though Arcata, and in fact most of the rest of the county is not reported yet either.
Not enough returns yet in the 5th District to be sure what’s going on with Sundberg-Cleary either. Looks like we won’t know for sure until tomorrow, at the soonest.
The Fifth District is the wild card, for sure. But I think Cleary will win a narrow victory
TRA, you are misreading the # of voters.It was 49K final tally in November 2008.
But you may still be right.
If the trend holds (55/45), which is possible, Gallegos needs a turnout of around 40,000.
49,000 voted in 2006 November as well.
So, we’ll probably get more than 40,000 –will the trend hold?
Hope not.
Any word on final report?
Can you be consistent on formatting, and placing names between your reports?
No and no.
perhaps I’m mistaken? I’m looking at the Third Report and it says two things about the % reported. On the upper left of the page it says “Total Number of Voters: 21,875 of 78,387 = 27.91%.” On the upper right it says “Precincts Reporting: 67 of 134 = 50%.”
My interpretation of this is that while half of the precinct have reported, because some precincts have more voters than other precincts, only about 28% of all the ballots that have been cast have been tallied so far. Do you have different or more recent numbers, or am I misunderstanding the meaning of the numbers on the Elections Dept. website?
How do you know which precincts are in and which aren’t? Actual phone call or can I tease it from the data?
FWIW, Paul needs to get a good turnout (49K) and 53-54% of the remaining vote to win.
the left is # of registered voters, not the actual amount that will vote. The right is more, in my opinion, to go off of, for how complete the tabulation has been going.
TRA-it’s possible I’m mistaken, I’m just a first-name-on-the-internet after all.
But I believe the 78K is registered voters, and in the past elections (scroll down on the election page) we’ve had 49K cards cast.
Check the finals from Nov 08 for example,
So 78K would be 100% voter participation. Only 29K voted in the primary this time.
So, if 49K vote (might be a little high but it’s reasonable) then Paul needs to get about 53.5% of what’s left to win.
Hope that helps.
Oh, I see (maybe). The 78,387 number is the total number of registered voters? Whereas the total number of ballots cast today is not yet known (which only makes sense now that I think about it) and you’re saying that the likely total will only be somewhere between 40,000 and 50,000. Do I have that right?
Yeah, that’s going to make it much harder for Gallegos to catch up — like you say he would have to really hold at least that 10 point lead in votes from the precincts, and even still it would be pretty close. Seems pretty unlikely, though as you note, not impossible.
Anyway, thank’s for catching my amateur’s mistake…and feel free to let me know if it seems like I’m still getting it wrong!
I think you have it TRA
The fourth report is in, but we still have nothing from Arcata? Hello? Where did all the Arcata results go? http://co.humboldt.ca.us/election/content/content.asp?pg=election_results.htm
With the fourth report in, suddenly the 5th doesn’t look all that tight to me. Sundberg was narrowly ahead with the write-ins, but is actually pulling ahead farther now that some of the precinct votes are in. At the moment, Sundberg leads 53 – 46.5 overall, and 56.5 – 43 among those who voted at the polls.
Meanwhile, Gallegos continues to gain ground, but he may end up coming up short. His lead among those voting at the polls has slipped about one point, with some (but not yet most) of the results now in from Fortuna and from the 5th District. Still no returns yet from Ferndale, Rio Dell, or Arcata.
I’m going to bed…and I hope the elections workers can do so soon as well. We’ll all know the final results soon enough…
What’s the expression, “the internet is written in pen, not pencil?”
Anyway, my numbers were wrong for total voters, and it’s such a fine margin that it matters hugely.
Final report shows 48% for the primary, 80% Nov08, and 63% for Nov 06.
Time to go write my penance on the blackboard 100 times, in cursive.
Final thought: As far as the Board of Supes goes, obviously it all comes down to what happens in the 5th. If Cleary somehow prevails, the balance of power on the Board of Supes doesn’t change much. If Sundberg wins, there will be a significant shift in the balance on the Board.
Now I don’t think Sundberg is really as developer-controlled as his detractors have tried to paint him, but certainly the outcome will be (correctly) interpreted as a blow to the Lovelace/Neeley faction of the Board, particularly when it comes to the issue of the General Plan Update.
If Sundberg DOES win, it will be interesting to see whether Lovelace, Neeley and Clendenan will try to push an Option A-style General Plan Update through during the Lame Duck period, before Bass replaces Neeley on the Board. If so, won’t they look like they are trying to thwart the will of the voters as expressed in the most recent election? Could be interesting.