The highest King Tides of the year arrived in Humboldt County this week, offering both a spectacle and a warning.
Unlike waves or swell, which are wind-driven, tides are the daily rise and fall of the ocean, created by the gravitational pull of the moon and sun. They become “King” tides when the sun, moon, and Earth align as the moon reaches its closest point to Earth. This amplifies gravitational pull, creating extra-high high tides and extra-low low tides.
But this week’s King Tides are not just a meteorological phenomenon. They flood roadways and beaches in real time and offer a preview of the new normal as sea level rises. Think of them as a weather forecast — telling us what’s happening today and what we can expect a decade from now, or sooner. That’s why the California King Tides Project exists, to document what the future will bring. You can still participate during next month’s King Tides on Jan. 2 and Jan. 3.
This watery future will affect everyone with a connection to the coast. Surfers. People who find restoration in a beach stroll, maybe with their dog cavorting alongside. People whose ancestors stretch back to time immemorial and people who arrived during the COVID boom. Anyone who drives U.S. Highway 101 or State Route 255 or Old Navy Base Road. Residents of King Salmon, Fields Landing, the Eel River Valley, or anywhere at or below sea level. People who visit pocket beaches like Luffenholz or Guthrie Creek, tide pool at Baker Beach, hike the Lost Coast, post up at Shelter Cove. Anyone who likes to drink clean water, catch fish in Humboldt Bay, eat local oysters. And, of course, city and county Public Works staff, elected officials, tourism promoters, coastal developers, state regulators, transportation planners. As a coastal county, our fortunes are inextricably tied to the future of our coast.
Humboldt Bay – leading the West Coast in sea level rise
During King Tides, Humboldt Bay swells as if it might spill over — and sometimes does. Elsewhere, roads, neighborhoods, trails and beaches temporarily disappear underwater. Waves run farther up the sand. The ocean pushes into estuaries, backing up rivers. Water scours away sand, eroding beaches and exposing vulnerable infrastructure.
For now, the tide recedes. But rising seas — an ongoing, irreversible reality driven by fossil fuel dependence — mean the ocean will expand farther inland every year. How much farther depends on geography and whether adjacent land is rising or sinking.
In addition to standard sea level rise projections, vertical land motion, known as subsidence or uplift, adds to or subtracts from local sea level. A recent NASA/JPL study documented measurable sinking along many California coastal areas, finding that Humboldt Bay is experiencing the fastest rate of relative sea level rise on the West Coast.
On average, the Humboldt coast will likely see at least 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050. The King Tides, along with NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer, therefore offer a reasonable preview of what will register as “normal” — or even low — tide in the future. From here, we can imagine what’s to come.
A Vision of the Future, Today
Forget posting up on the north end of Trinidad State Beach or throwing surf contests at College Cove — by 2050, that sand will be underwater most hours of the day. That low tide break at Camel Rock will be lost to permanent higher tides. You’ll hope the viewing platform at Tepona Point survives so you can show the kids where Luffenholz Beach used to be.
Wave goodbye to those cows on the south side of State Route 255. For that matter, wave goodbye to the 255 — except maybe since that transpacific undersea fiber optic cable runs alongside it, the county will maintain some kind of barrier to keep the bay from overtaking the road. Hopefully, Arcata’s plans to add salt marsh around the wastewater treatment plant will be complete, as well.
Traveling to and from Manila, Samoa, Finntown and Fairhaven will mean navigating more coastal hazards. The Samoa Peninsula is already dotted with rotting industrial projects such as the old pulp mill and Fairhaven power plant, and covered in invasive European beach grass that turns dunes into unnatural and dangerous cliffs impossible to scale. Water delivery infrastructure to the Coast Guard station has already been damaged by high tides. Part of Old Navy Base Road teeters on a crumbling shoreline. About 75 percent of the bay is buttressed by artificial structures, namely rocks, which worsen erosion over time and destroy sensitive habitats. These problems will only intensify.
Remember when Humboldt Waterkeeper and Surfrider pushed Caltrans to account for sea level rise in the agency’s U.S. Highway 101 redesign? That advocacy improved the outcome and the overpass connecting Arcata and Eureka. But the glorious new multiuse trail alongside the bay will be a quarter-century old by 2050 and reliant on intervention to still exist. Deeper into Eureka, Eureka Marsh will embrace the “wet” in wetlands to a profound degree — might as well stock up on mosquito repellent now. Leaving the city, expect submerged fields on both sides of the highway.
Will King Salmon resemble Venice with homes on wooden piles or Sausalito’s collection of houseboats? Here’s hoping rising seas don’t overtop the 37 tons of nuclear waste currently stored on the bluff — current estimates suggest that won’t happen until 2090, if climate change doesn’t accelerate.
Down in the Lost Coast Headlands, Fleener Creek Beach has been closed nearly two years due to landslides. With rising seas, stronger storms, and increased erosion, Guthrie Creek and other pocket beaches won’t last much longer. The Lost Coast’s famed hike already requires careful attention to tidal predictions — by 2050, the tide may not drop low enough to allow passage along the beach. The road to Shelter Cove’s beach won’t serve much purpose beyond a boat ramp once the beach is permanently underwater.
A Different Approach
Imagination alone won’t prepare us. Neither will the failed approaches scattered across our coastline — the rock armoring that accelerates erosion, the industrial debris, the infrastructure built as if the ocean would never reach it. Real planning means prioritizing nature and includes honoring the practices of those who’ve stewarded this coast since time immemorial.
Consider the Wiyot Tribe’s approach to their culturally important sites, infrastructure, and traditional lands around Wigi (Humboldt Bay). In response to sea level rise threats, they’ve secured grants for climate adaptation planning and purchased vulnerable coastal property to restore and protect. Collaborating with academia and state agencies, the Wiyot integrate traditional knowledge with scientific research to develop resilience strategies that protect sacred areas and vital ecosystems from flooding and contamination. This includes several ongoing restoration activities at the Wiyot village site of Tuluwat.
Love Your Beach? Help Save It
Coastal resilience planning happens through multiple channels. Get hands on with Friends of the Dunes or Trinidad Land Trust at their restoration events. Ask your elected representatives what they’re doing to ensure the life of our beaches and how they plan to protect at-risk infrastructure, including roads, water systems and wastewater treatment plants. Attend California Coastal Commission hearings when Humboldt projects are on the agenda. Advocate for nature-based solutions instead of destructive rock revetments. Support funding for climate adaptation and habitat restoration.
And get out there. Enjoy those beaches and waves while you can.
Learn More
Humboldt Coastal Resilience Project
Cal Poly Humboldt Sea Level Rise Institute
EcoNews Report: Rising Seas and the Future of Humboldt Bay
Jennifer Savage (she/her) is a longtime local freelance journalist and has a day job as Surfrider Foundation’s California Policy Associate Director.