Election Night
Tuesday, June 7, 2022
Stillman to Return to Arcata City Council After Commanding Win
Posted By Kimberly Wear on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:46 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
Alexandra Stillman will be returning to the Arcata City Council, having taken 41 percent of the 1,422 ballots counted thus far in a six-way race, far outpacing runner up Kimberley White’s 22 percent.
FOURTH UPDATE:
The latest update did not add any ballots to the Arcata City Council race, which Alexandra Stillman continues to lead big with 42 percent of the vote.
THIRD REPORT:
Alex Stillman appears poised to return to the Arcata City Council dais with 41.95 percent of the vote in the third Election Night report on the six-person race.
Her closest contender is Kimberley White with 22.8 percent of the vote, followed by Edith Rosen with 11.37, Humnath Panta with 11.21, Dana Quillman with 7.32 and Chase Marcum with 5.26 percent of the vote, respectively.
A total of 1,311 votes have been counted so far, including 148 cast on Election Day.
SECOND REPORT:
The results for the Arcata City Council race remained unchanged in the second Election Night report, with no additional ballots counted.
In a packed field of six candidates, Alex Stillman — who previously served on the dais — was outpacing the others in the special election for a single seat on the Arcata City Council.
The two front runners were followed by Humnath Panta with 11.35, Edith Rosen with 10.15, Dana Quillman with 7.39 and Chase Marcum with 5.07 percent of the vote, respectively.
A total of 1,163 votes have been counted so far.
In the winner-take-all contest, the top vote getter will serve out the term of former Vice Mayor Emily Goldstein, which runs through November of 2024. Goldstein stepped down March 1 for family reasons.
Steward Takes Judicial Race
Posted By Iridian Casarez on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:44 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
The final election night report leaves Deputy District Attorney Steven Steward poised to become Humboldt County’s next superior court judge, having taken 57 percent of the 12,963 ballots counted thus for to Deputy Public Defender Ben McLaughlin’s 43 percent.
FOURTH REPORT:
Deputy District Attorney Steven Steward continues to build on his commanding lead, having now taken 58 percent of the 11,533 ballots counted in the race so far, with Deputy Public Defender Ben McLaughlin trailing with 42 percent of the vote.
THIRD REPORT:
Steven Steward remains in the lead for the Humboldt County Superior Court Judge seat, with 58 percent of the 11,533 votes counted, while McLaughlin has 42 percent.
SECOND REPORT:
With only 332 more votes since the last election night report, Steven Steward continues to lead the race for Humboldt County Superior Court judge, with 58 percent of the 11,048 votes counted so far. Ben McLaughlin, meanwhile, has 41 percent.
FIRST REPORT:
Steven Steward has taken an early lead in the race to replace retiring Judge Christopher Wilson in the Humboldt County Superior Court.
In the first Election Night return, which is comprised of ballots that arrived at the Humboldt County Elections office before today, Steward took 58 percent, while Ben McLaughlin took 41 percent, with 10,716 ballots counted in the race so far.
McLaughlin and Steward are vying for the seat in what's just Humboldt County's second contested judicial election in the last 20 years.
Humboldt County Superior Court judges, who serve six-year terms, hold an immense amount of discretion in their courtrooms, overseeing both civil and criminal cases. In civil cases — which include family law proceedings, probate cases, petitions for court orders and claims — a judge's decision can determine whether a family stays together, how an estate is dispersed, what records are determined to be open to public view and who's at fault in a given dispute. In criminal cases — which include felonies, misdemeanors and infractions, like traffic tickets — judges determine whether there is enough evidence to support a charge, what evidence will be admissible at trial, how a jury will be instructed on the law and, ultimately, what constitutes a just sentence for those found guilty.
Both candidates have backgrounds in criminal law and have spent time prosecuting serious and violent crimes.
McLaughlin, who grew up in Palo Alto and has lived in Humboldt County for 15 years, has focused the last 17 years of his career on criminal law and served seven of those years as a deputy district attorney and five as a deputy public defender in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. He graduated from Vanderbilt University as a history major with an emphasis in Latin American history in 1994 before receiving his law degree from Santa Clara University School of Law in 1999. He spent a short time in civil litigation before focusing on criminal law.
Steward, who grew up in Los Angeles and moved back to Humboldt County after graduating from Humboldt State University (now Cal Poly Humboldt) in 1998, has worked as a Humboldt County deputy district attorney since 2017, serving as the office's lead environmental crimes prosecutor. He earned majored in political science at HSU before attending graduate school at San Francisco State University. Steward then moved to Washington, D.C., where he worked for a member of Congress before attending law school at The Catholic University's Columbus School of Law, while working to provide legal services to indigent clients at a domestic violence clinic. After getting his law degree he returned to California and spent seven years representing low-income defendants in criminal courts in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
Nielsen, Cervantes Appear Headed Toward Runoff in Clerk-Recorder-Registrar Race
Posted By Thadeus Greenson on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:41 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
Tiffany Hunt Nielsen grew her lead a bit more in the final election night count, pulling 46 percent of the 13,271 votes counted for clerk-recorder and registrar of voters, outpacing Juan Pablo Cervantes’ 41 percent of the vote and Benjamin Hershberger’s 13 percent. The tally seemingly leaves Nielsen and Cervantes poised for a November runoff.
FOURTH REPORT:
Tiffany Hunt Nielsen built on her lead in the fourth return of the night and is now holds a solid lead in the clerk-recorder and registrar of voters race, having taken 46 percent of the 12,605 ballots counted thus far to Juan Pablo Cervantes’ 41 percent. Benjamin Hershberger sits in a distant third with 13 percent of the vote.
THIRD REPORT:
The third election night report only added about 250 votes to the night’s tally and the race for county clerk-recorder and registrar of voters remains tight, with Tiffany Hunt Nielsen holding a slim lead with 45 percent of the vote to Juan Pablo Cervantes’ 43 percent with 11,802 ballots counted thus far. Benjamin Hershberger, meanwhile, remains a distant third with13 percent of the vote.
SECOND REPORT:
The second election night report didn’t add many votes to the night’s tally and the race to for county clerk-recorder and registrar of voters remains tight, with Tiffany Hunt Nielsen leading with 45 percent of the 11,317 ballots counted so far, while Juan Pablo Cervantes trails with 42 percent and Benjamin Hershberger is running a distant third with 13 percent of the vote.
FIRST REPORT:
Tiffany Hunt Nielsen has jumped out to a narrow early lead in the three-way race to replace retiring Kelly Sanders as Humboldt County's clerk-recorder and registrar of voters.
In the first Election Night return — entirely comprised of ballots that arrived at the Humboldt County Elections office prior to today — Nielsen leads with 45 percent of the vote, trailed by Juan Pablo Cervantes with 43 percent of the vote, while Benjamin Hershberger has 13 percent of the 10,962 ballots counted thus far.
With Sanders, a two-term incumbent, opting not to seek re-election, the three hopefuls have entered the fray in a bid to succeed her and oversee both the county Elections Office and Recorder's Office, which is responsible for maintaining vital records — things like birth and death certificates, and marriage licenses — and other legal documents.
Cervantes, an elections specialist for the county Office of Elections, said he is running because he's "passionate" about transparent and efficient county government. Hershberger, meanwhile, has worked for the county for 26 years, the last 16 in the Recorder's Office as its fiscal officer, and indicated he wants to continue the direction set by Sanders. Nielsen, meanwhile, is a senior recordable document examiner at the Recorder's Office, having entered county employment after 17 years at Humboldt Land Title Co.
Fifth District: Madrone Cruises to Another Term
Posted By Kimberly Wear on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:40 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
Challenger Larry Doss picked up some ground in the final election night report but continues to trail Fifth District Supervisor Steve Madrone by a wide margin, with the incumbent having taken 61 percent of the vote to Doss’ 39 percent.
FOURTH REPORT:
The Fifth District race saw a few more ballots counted in the fourth report, with incumbent Steve Madrone continuing to hold a large lead, having taken 65 percent of the 2,633 ballots counted thus far to challenger Larry Doss’ 35 percent.
SECOND AND THIRD REPORTS:
The results for the Fifth District race remained unchanged in the second and third Election Night report, with no additional ballots counted.
FIRST REPORT:
Early returns show incumbent Supervisor Steve Madrone with a comfortable lead over challenger Larry Doss in the race for the Fifth District county supervisor seat.
In the first Election Night report, Madrone received 65 percent of the vote in the initial tallies, which only include vote-by-mail ballots that arrived at the Humboldt County Elections Office before today.
Madrone, a natural resource specialist, is looking to retain the seat he narrowly won in the 2018 election.
Doss, who is also a cattle rancher, recently stepped down as a Humboldt Bay Harbor, Recreation and Conservation District commissioner after changing his primary residency from Eureka to Orick.
The two are facing off to represent the sprawling district that encompasses the northern portion of Humboldt County, from the more urban neighborhoods of McKinleyville to the rural reaches of Willow Creek.
Eads Finishes Night With Decisive Win
Posted By Thadeus Greenson on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:39 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
Deputy District Attorney Stacey Eads will be Humboldt County’s next top prosecutor, taking over for her mentor Maggie Fleming, who announced she will retire at the end of the year. Eads has taken 59 percent of the 13,749 votes counted thus far in the race, far outpacing Deputy Public Defender Adrian Kamada’s 30 percent and defense attorney Michael Acosta’s 11 percent.
FOURTH REPORT:
Deputy District Attorney Stacey Eads is running away with the race to succeed Maggie Fleming, having taken 59 percent of the 13,028 ballots counted thus far to hold a commanding lead over Deputy Public Defender Adrian Kamada, who has 30 percent of the vote, and defense attorney Michael Acosta, who has 11 percent.
THIRD REPORT:
The third election night report only added about 250 votes to the night’s tally and Deputy District Attorney Stacey Eads continues to hold a strong lead in the race to become Humboldt County’s next district attorney, having taken 59 percent of the 12,191 ballots counted thus far, with deputy public defender Adrian Kamada and defense attorney Michael Acosta trailing with 30 percent and 10 percent of the vote, respectively.
SECOND REPORT:
The second election night report didn’t add many votes to the night’s tally and Deputy District Attorney Stacey Eads still holds a significant lead in the race to become Humboldt County’s next district attorney, having taken 60 percent of the 11,677 ballots counted thus far, with deputy public defender Adrian Kamada trailing with 30 percent of the vote and defense attorney Michael Acosta bringing up the rear with 10 percent.
FIRST REPORT:
Deputy District Attorney Stacey Eads has jumped out to a significant early lead in the three-way race to replace retiring Maggie Fleming as Humboldt County's next district attorney.
In the first Election Night return — comprised entirely of ballots that arrived at the Humboldt County Elections Office prior to today — Eads took 60 percent of the vote, with Deputy Public Defender Adrian Kamada trailing with 30 percent and local defense attorney Michael Acosta bringing up the rear with 10 percent of the vote. Roughly 11,300 ballots have been counted thus far.
With incumbent Fleming retiring after two terms as the county's top prosecutor, the three candidates have run a spirited race to replace her, with Kamada casting himself as a reform candidate, Eads pledging to continue the direction Fleming set for the office and Acosta running as an anti-establishment candidate looking to reshape the system entirely.
Eads has worked as a prosecutor in Humboldt County for more than 20 years, handling everything from misdemeanors and juvenile cases to child abuse, sexual assault and high-profile murders. She's got Fleming's endorsement in the race and Eads has referred to the county's first female district attorney as a mentor.
Kamada, meanwhile, worked as a deputy district attorney in the office from 2014 through 2019 before leaving for the county's Public Defender's Office. Selected as the Wildlife Prosecutor of the Year by the California Fish and Game Commission in 2017, Kamada was touted for prosecuting poachers and forming the county's environmental crimes task force. Kamada also prosecuted homicides and narcotics cases, and has defended a felony caseload since becoming a deputy public defender in 2020.
Acosta, meanwhile, is a polarizing figure who has shown flashes of brilliance in his 23-year law career, much of it spent in criminal defense. Acosta has twice been deemed ineligible to practice law by the California State Bar and currently faces felony charges of maintaining a drug house and drug possession with the intent to distribute. (He has pleaded not guilty to the charges and argued his prosecution is politically motivated.)
Arroyo Leads Big in Fourth District But Runoff Possible
Posted By Iridian Casarez on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:39 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
The final election night report leaves Eureka City Councilmember Natalie Arroyo holding a commanding lead in the race for Humboldt County Fourth District supervisor but clinging delicately to the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a November runoff. The last Election Night tally has Arroyo having taken 50.21 percent of the 2,354 ballots counted thus far in the race, with Mike Newman and Kim Bergel trailing with 35 and 15 percent of the vote respectively.
FOURTH REPORT:
While Natalie Arroyo holds a commanding lead in the Fourth District supervisorial race, her vote tally continues to dip closer to the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff in November. After the fourth tally, with 2,354 votes counted in the race so far, Arroyo has 50.21 percent of the vote, trailed by Mike Newman with 34.71 percent and Kim Bergel with 15.08 percent.
THIRD REPORT:
With the third election night results only yielding 133 more votes, Natalie Arroyo continues to hold the lead for the Fourth District supervisor seat, with 51 percent of the 2,169 votes counted thus far. Mike Newman and Kim Bergel trail, with 33 percent and 15 percent of the vote, respectively.
SECOND REPORT:
With the second election night results in, Arroyo has held steady in her lead for the county's fourth district seat, with 52 percent of the vote to Bergel's 15 percent and Newman's 32 percent. The tally includes 2,036 votes counted so far.
FIRST REPORT:
Natalie Arroyo has taken an early lead in the race to replace Fourth District Supervisor Virginia Bass, who earlier this year announced she would not be running for re-election after serving the district that comprises the city of Eureka and the Samoa Peninsula for the last 12 years.
In the first Election Night return, which is comprised of ballots that arrived at the Humboldt County Elections office before today, Arroyo took 53 percent of the vote, while Kim Bergel took 15 percent and Mike Newman took 32 percent, with 1,947 ballots counted in the race thus far.
Arroyo, Bergel and Newman all have experience serving on the Eureka City Council, with Arroyo and Bergel both currently serving on the council but terming out this year. Newman, meanwhile, served on the council from 2010 through 2014.
Arroyo, a U.S. Coast Guard Reserve officer and resources manager with Redwood Community Action Agency, has worked in natural resources management for more than 15 years and is an environmental science and management instructor at Cal Poly Humboldt. Arroyo was first elected to the Eureka City Council in 2014 and then re-elected in 2018. As a council member, she serves as the Board Chair and the Eureka representative to the Humboldt Transit Authority.
Bergel, an instructional aide for Eureka City Schools, first announced her bid to run for the fourth district seat in October. She has sat on the Eureka City Council since 2014 and was reelected in 2018. Bergel has worked with Transportation Safety Commission, the Community Access Project for Eureka (CAPE), UPLIFT Eureka and the Humboldt County Department of Health and Human Services’ MIST program.
Newman is currently an insurance agent in Eureka and a Humboldt County planning commissioner. He previously served as a Eureka City Councilmember from 2010 to 2014. As a council member, he chaired the Redwood Region Economic Development Council. In 2015, Newman was appointed to the Humboldt County Citizen's Advisory Committee on Measure Z.
It's Dillingham in a Landslide for Auditor-Controller
Posted By Thadeus Greenson on Tue, Jun 7, 2022 at 8:36 PM
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT REPORT:
Challenger Cheryl Dillingham has capped a remarkable night in which she jumped out to a huge lead in the auditor-controller race and simply never looked back, finishing with 70 percent of the vote to embattled incumbent Karen Paz Dominguez’s 23 percent, capturing the most decisive win of the night in the county’s highest profile race.
FOURTH REPORT:
Challenger Cheryl Dillingham continues to lead by a huge margin in the race for auditor-controller, having taken 70 percent of the 12,916 votes tallied thus far to incumbent Karen Paz Dominguez’s 23 percent.
THIRD REPORT:
The third election night report only added about 250 votes to the night’s tally and the race for auditor-controller remains largely unchanged, with challenger Cheryl Dillingham taking 69 percent of the ballots counted thus far and incumbent Karen Paz Dominguez taking 23 percent of the vote with 12,096 ballots counted.
SECOND REPORT:
The second election night report doesn’t add many votes to the night’s tally and challenger Cheryl Dillingham remains in control of the auditor-controller race, having taken 70 percent of the 11,587 ballots counted thus far to incumbent Karen Paz Dominguez’s 23 percent.
FIRST REPORT:
Challenger Cheryl Dillingham jumped out to a significant early lead, taking 69 percent of the vote over incumbent Karen Paz Dominguez's 23 percent, in the first election night report in the race to become Humboldt County's next auditor-controller.
The report comes with 11,223 ballots counted thus far — all of them consisting of ballots that arrived at the Humboldt County Elections Office prior to Election Day.
The typically sleepy, dry race to become the county's next auditor-controller has been anything but this year. The office is responsible for processing and auditing claims for payment from the county, issuing receipts for all payments received by the county, apportioning and distributing county property tax monies to various outside entities and auditing and issuing the county's payroll, all of which has been thrust into sharp focus in recent years as the office has increasingly become a point of controversy.
Incumbent Paz Dominguez has become one of the most polarizing figures in county politics, repeatedly and loudly alleging the county's financial safeguards are a mess, leaving plentiful opportunities for fraud. But while she has cast herself as a whistleblower and devoted watchdog of taxpayer funds, Paz Dominguez's tenure has been defined by a growing chorus of discord with her office's inability to meet some of its core functions. School districts and other entities have complained about delayed property tax apportionments and deadlines for the filings of state mandated financial records have been missed, putting state and federal funding streams at risk. While Paz Dominguez has charged that short staffing and other county departments' sloppy financial management and unwillingness to get her needed records are largely to blame, other county department heads have said the problems lie squarely with her office.
Dillingham, who spent 30 years in county government, including a decade in the auditor-controller's office, stepped in to challenge Paz Dominguez for the post. Currently working as Rio Dell's finance director, Dillingham has said she feels uniquely qualified for the position — noting she's done much of the work required without issue — and that she decided to enter the race after becoming increasingly concerned about the state of the office.
A third candidate — Public Health Administrative Analyst Mychal Evenson — filed all the paperwork necessary to qualify for the ballot but announced he was dropping out of the race at the county filing deadline, saying Dillingham is a "more qualified" candidate and throwing his support behind her campaign.
Evenson has taken 8 percent of the vote thus far, despite having withdrawn from the race.
Friday, May 6, 2022
Voter Guide Contains Error on Arcata City Council Race
Posted By Kimberly Wear on Fri, May 6, 2022 at 2:27 PM
There is an error in the Voter Information Guide instructions for the single Arcata City Council seat up for grabs on the June ballot. Instead of saying, "Vote for One," the guide mistakenly has, "Vote for no more than THREE candidates."
"The instruction is correct on the Vote by Mail ballots that will be mailed to all registered voters in the city of Arcata on Monday, May 9th," the county Office of Elections stated in a release. "We sincerely apologize for the error and any confusion this may have caused voters."
To be clear, this is a winner-take-all election that will see the top vote-getter of the six hopefuls — Chase Marcum, Humnath Panta, Dana Quillman, Edith Rosen, Alexandra Stillman and Kimberley White — serve out the remainder of fomer Councilmember Emily Goldstein's term, which runs through November of 2024.
Goldstein stepped down earlier this year for family reasons, marking the second mid-term vacancy on the five-person council in less than a year. The remaining four councilmembers voted in February to have a special election in June to fill her seat rather than appointing someone to serve until the November election or simply waiting until then to return to a full complement.
Find out more about the candidates and their views in this week's Journal article, "The Race for City Hall," by clicking here.
Read the county Office of Elections' release below:
The Humboldt County Office of Elections has discovered an error on the ballot instruction in the Voter Information Guide for the Arcata City Councilmember contest on the Statewide Primary Election ballot. The instruction states “Vote for no more than THREE” candidates. The instruction should read “Vote for One” candidate. The instruction is correct on the Vote by Mail ballots that will be mailed to all registered voters in the City of Arcata on Monday, May 9th. We sincerely apologize for the error and any confusion this may have caused voters. The Humboldt County Office of Elections can be reached at (707) 445-7481 or by email at [email protected]
Tuesday, May 3, 2022
Local Candidate Forums Set
Posted By Thadeus Greenson on Tue, May 3, 2022 at 8:48 AM
It’s a lot. Fortunately, there are a host of opportunities in the coming weeks to get to know the candidates a bit better. Chief among those are three series of candidate forums to be put on by KEET-TV and the League of Women Voters of Humboldt County (LWVHC), the Humboldt County Association of Realtors and 15 local community groups.
Friday, April 22, 2022
Can a Conservative Break Through for California Attorney General?
Posted By Ben Christopher, CALmatters on Fri, Apr 22, 2022 at 10:36 AM
That was 16 years ago.
Now Newsom is the silver-haired governor running for his second term, Zuckerberg is a election-shaping tech mogul pushing middle age and Trump — well, you know all about him.
A lot has changed about politics since 2006, but not the California Democratic Party’s undefeated record for statewide office.
Republicans and conservative independents are hoping that 2022 might finally be the year they break the winning streak. And they’re pinning their hopes on the race for California attorney general.
Now it’s just a matter of picking the right candidate for the job: A conservative without a party label? A self-described “pragmatic” Republican? Or a GOP candidate from the party’s MAGA wing?
“The momentum is there,” Sacramento District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert told CalMatters reporters and editors this week. The top-funded challenger to Democratic incumbent Rob Bonta, she left the GOP in 2018 and will be listed on the ballot with “no party preference.”
“Public safety will transcend politics,” she said. “And this is the moment for that to happen.”
It’s an optimistic line echoed by Nathan Hochman, a Los Angeles lawyer and former federal prosecutor. Hochman is a Republican, but one who has so far resisted taking many specific policy positions and instead emphasizes his long and varied legal resume and his nonpartisan instincts.
Like Schubert, he predicts that, amid heightened public concern over safety, voters are “going to look beyond the party.”
Though Eric Early — who holds base-appealing views on “critical race theory,” gun control and COVID vaccine requirements — acknowledges that running against an incumbent Democrat in California is “always tough,” he is especially hopeful this year.
“If you’re going to take one statewide position, at one point in time in California, where a non-Democrat could win, it’s the attorney general position,” said Early, a Los Angeles lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for attorney general in 2018 and for Congress in 2020.
Money, incumbency and voter registration statistics still favor Bonta to keep the job. But his opponents do have a few things going for them in 2022. There’s the high price of gas, rising inflation, the low approval numbers of Democratic President Joe Biden and the electoral truism that the first midterm election after a new president is elected is almost always a bust for the party in power. Just ask any Republican running in 2018.
Those headwinds are blowing against all incumbent Democrats, but Bonta might be especially vulnerable. Crime — and public angst about it — are on the rise. Political discontent about law and order is beginning to express itself even in the liberal bastions such of San Francisco and Los Angeles, where District Attorneys Chesa Boudin and George Gascón are facing possible recalls. Bonta, a nine-year state legislator from Alameda who was appointed to the position by Newsom in 2021, has never run for statewide office and may lack broad name recognition as a result.
Three ways to take on Bonta
Schubert, Hochman and Early represent different approaches on how to unseat a sitting Democrat in California.
Hochman’s theory of the case relies on the Republican Party’s known, if admittedly unpopular, brand in California, plus its credibility on law and order. “When voters are looking at the ballot, they’re going to see ‘party preference: Republican.’ And I believe when it comes to safety and security, that’s not a negative,” he said.
So far, Hochman has also gone out of his way to skirt some of the controversies that might alienate otherwise left-leaning voters.
Early makes an even more confident argument about the GOP’s appeal this year. He predicts that concern about crime is not only going to persuade the state’s Democratic-inclined voters to overlook the party label for California attorney general, but also to embrace some of the party’s most conservative principles. “I think being a Republican might actually help.”
Neither Republican was particularly impressed with Schubert’s strategy of running with no party preference. “What does that actually stand for?” Hochman asked in his interview with CalMatters reporters.
Early was more direct: “Independents always reserve their right to basically change positions back and forth…I don’t think that that’s fair to the voters, frankly.”
But Schubert’s platform has been consistent so far. Her campaign platform may be every bit as “tough on crime” as Hochman’s, if not more so. But steering clear of a party label, she is positioning herself as a professional prosecutor outside the partisan fray. Her campaign is also a test of whether right-of-center policies can fly in California if they’re severed from the unpopular partisan label that so often accompanies them.
Schubert isn’t the first former Republican to take a shot at statewide office as an independent. In 2014, Dan Schnur, after a long career working for Republicans including former Gov. Pete Wilson and the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, ran for secretary of state with “no party preference.” He won less than 10% of the vote.
Four years later, Steve Poizner, the former Republican insurance commissioner, ran for his old position — only without the “R” next to his name. He fared quite a bit better, but despite spending more than $1.5 million of his own money, he lost to the current commissioner, Democrat Ricardo Lara.
Schnur, now a professor at USC’s Annenberg School of Communications, said he’s more optimistic about Schubert’s chances.
“Before I ran, smart people told me that an independent candidate would need two things to win a statewide race in California: An issue that people cared deeply about, and an office that they understood,” he said. “I had neither of those things. Steve Poizner had one. Schubert may have both.”
Democratic political consultant Garry South, however, remains skeptical that anyone without a “D” next to their name on the ballot has a realistic chance for statewide office.
He rattles off a few statistics: The last time a Republican was elected California attorney general was 1994. The only time a political independent made it to the November election under the top-two primary system was Poizner, a millionaire who used to hold the office he was seeking. The last time an appointed attorney general ran for election was Xavier Becerra in 2018 and the Democrat beat his Republican opponent, Steven Bailey, by 27 percentage points.
“There is just no recent history in California to suggest that a Republican can win statewide office and there is no history to suggest that an (independent) candidate has any kind of advantage,” South said. “I defy anyone to explain to me how Anne Marie Schubert escapes those bare-ass facts.”
‘It’s still California’
In a survey released this month by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, 23 percent of registered voters named crime and public safety as their top concern. That was the third most popular pick after the cost of housing and homelessness. But the partisan breakdown was telling: Crime was far and away the first choice among GOP voters, with 39 percent of registered Republicans calling it their top issue. Among Democrats, it came fifth, behind housing, homelessness, climate change and gas prices.
That partisan breakdown mirrors a February poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, which found that Republican likely voters were nearly three-times as likely as Democrats to say crime, gangs and drugs should be the state government’s top priority.
But even if public safety does grow to become a more dominant and bipartisan concern, it’s not clear voters will take out their uncertainty on the incumbent California attorney general, said Dean Bonner, associate survey director at the institute.
“That’s the first connection that needs to be made: This is an incumbent and this person’s job is attached to crime,” he said. “I do wonder if the average voter would make that connection.”
Perhaps more importantly, there’s the underlying political math that has thwarted California Republicans for decades. At last count, 47 percent of the state’s 22 million voters are registered Democrats and most of them — time and again — vote for the Democrat. That’s compared to 24 percent who are Republican. That creates a “real conundrum” for right-of-center candidates who need both the GOP base and a majority of independents to overcome the power of the mostly unified Democratic voting bloc, said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant and vociferous critic of the GOP’s embrace of Donald Trump.“Can it be done? It absolutely can be done. Has it been done before? No,” said Madrid. “Bonta is particularly vulnerable at this point in time, but it’s still California.”
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