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According to Journal contributor Jennifer Savage, Elections Chief Carolyn Crnich is saying that it's going to be a long night. The two-page ballot is a bear to scan, and turnout appears to have been crazy high.

Prop. 19 is failing.

Yes, absentee results skew conservative, but these are bad, bad numbers for progressives. Cleary excepted.

DA

Gallegos: 41.6%

Jackson: 58.2%

FOURTH DISTRICT

Bass: 64.1%

Neely: 35.1%

FIFTH DISTRICT

Cleary: 48.5%

Sundberg: 51.2%

ASSESSOR

Wilson: 57.8%

Rodoni: 42.1%

EUREKA MAYOR

Jager: 59.23%

LaVallee: 35.49%

EUREKA WARD ONE

Glass: 35.74%

Brady: 64.04%

EUREKA WARD THREE

Newman: 48.18%

Kuhnel: 40.59%

Manns: 11.08%

MEASURE N

Yes: 74.14%

No: 25.86%

$4,000 each for Glass and Kuhnel; $5,000 for Cleary.

PDF here.

Polling places across Arcata are reporting higher than anticipated turnout this afternoon, as steady streams of young voters make their way to the polls. Phrases used by a number of poll workers included, "strong and steady," "higher than usual," and "surprising."

Off-year, non-presidential elections like this one are often a yawn for most registered voters, with turnout usually peaking at an abysmal 35 percent or so. But this year, the influx of surprise voters, especially young ones, raises the question: What's so exciting this time around? Um, Prop. 19. Duh.

Humboldt County Democratic Central Committee Chair Milt Boyd is overseeing electoral operations over at Humboldt State University, where a continual line of students readied to vote at the polling place. He said Prop. 19 certainly brought out the crowds, but as a side effect other issues on the ballot will be affected by the youth casting a ballot, which could be a boon for Democratic and Progressive candidates both locally and statewide.

Whether or not the generally apathetic youth come out to vote for an election is usually anyone's guess. But if the anecdotal evidence is any indication, Arcata can expect a surprisingly high turnout this year and, maybe, help tip support for Prop. 19 in the county over the finish line.

Journal contributor Terrence McNally writes:

I, Terrence McNally, recognizing that by several legal definitions I am a total jerkwad, hereby offer my apology to District Attorney Paul Gallegos' political operative, Richard Salzman.

When I received a phone call from Arcata Police Department Officer Altizer today, Nov. 2, telling me that Mr. Salzman had filed a complaint with APD, I realized that my Facebook friendship requests were undesired and that Mr. Salzman, despite his lack of response, had no desire to create a Facebook friendship relationship with me. And that despite Mr. Salzman relaying to law enforcement that I had made "annoying and harassing phone calls," which never happened and I totally never called the guy and don't have his phone number, I understand that this is a Facebook issue. Oh, actually I did e-mail him once, and that was terrible.

Since leaving my employment at the Arcata Eye newspaper, I have felt entirely too free to comment about issues such as the District Attorney race, which I have witnessed over some 14 years.

So when Arcata City Council Candidate Dave Meserve is promoting his mission to create a public restroom, something he bungled during his previous tenure, I was flummoxed and stated so via Facebook. And when Meserve positioned himself as the savior of the bicycle trail movement, despite the current council's ability to create and pass, in his absence, the Arcata Pedestrian and Bicycle Master Plan, the document from which all of the city's bike and pedestrian trails will emanate, I was too quick to complain via Facebook. And when Dave Meserve appropriated AC/DC's font and motto, despite my complete distrust of his enthusiasm for rocking, I was too quick to judge.

Likewise, my offer to Richard Salzman to vote for his candidate, Paul Gallegos, on the condition that he accept my Facebook friendship was abusive, cruel and meanspirited (a term that seems to have gone out of style, but which I am attempting to bring back in place of the overused "douchebag," which for some reason is back in play).

And despite Mr. Salzman's proven track record of using the Internets unethically and for the purposes of political bullying, I now see that I have become that which I, uh... like, didn't want to be and stuff.

And that's bad.

So: Sorry ’bout that, Dick. I will not seek your Facebook friendship again, as it has caused you considerable emotional distress. Best of luck at the Lost Coast Brewery tonight.

Cheers,

Terrence McNally

Here it is, folks -- Election Day! After months of candidate forums, campaign commercials, mud-slinging, posturing and promises, it's time to exercise the greatest power afforded you by the government of these United States of America: scribbling ball-point ink inside tiny rectangular boxes. (Here's how not to do it.) Smells like freedom.

Candidates and their supporters are out and about, trying to sway last-minute fence sitters and motivate hung-over Giants fans. Above, District Attorney candidate Allison Jackson executes the little-used "low five" with a celebratory supporter in front of the county courthouse. Her campaign has evidently succeeded at least in making her recognizable: When she showed up at her polling place this morning, she said, a poll worker told her, "You don't need your ID." Asked how she was feeling Jackson replied, "Feeling great. The Giants won! It's a wonderful year."

Just a dozen yards up Fifth Street, Democratic party volunteer Anthony Barondess of Eureka was representin' large for the leftward plank of politicos, including incumbent Fourth District County Supervisor Bonnie Neely, incumbent DA Paul Gallegos, incumbent City Councilman Larry Glass and Peter LaVallee, the once and would-be future mayor of Eureka.

A few blocks west, the Salas family -- Dave, Sheila and an unidentified youngun -- were strolling through town bedecked in Jackson's palette of purple and green.

"She's for the people -- especially children," Sheila Salas said. 

Keep checking back here throughout the afternoon and evening. We'll be live-blogging the results as they come in, and our reporters will be scattered throughout the region, pointing our cameras at the pensive faces of our assorted candidates and chronicling their respective victories and defeats.

 

The November installment of North Coast Almanack -- famous writer Amy Stewart's popular and utile guide to gardening, alcohol and alcoholic gardeners -- won't be published until tomorrow. We give you a preview today.

Nov. 1: Tomorrow [today] you will be asked to make a very interesting decision. The appeal of taking an illegal operation and bringing it into the bright light of legitimate commerce is what tempts many of us to vote in favor of it. One envisions clean, well-lit, ecologically sound greenhouses and coffeehouses, frequented by tourists and staffed by tax-paying workers who enjoy the same protections and rights of all workers, so much that they hardly miss the rolls of greenbacks slipped surreptitiously in their pockets along with their share of the trimmings. Whether such a day will dawn here or in Oakland or anywhere at all is an open question.

One wonders, however, whether anyone who enjoys the dark and shifty life of an outlaw will embrace the job of running an up-front business, with its tedium of paperwork and endless quibbles over permits and contracts and finer points of law and etiquette. A rum-runner harbors no dream of operating an above-board establishment; if the rum were to run dry, smuggling some other form of contraband would prove more appealing. It is nonetheless unpleasant to live among rum-runners, which is why some of us hope to legalize their operation and let those with better business acumen take command of the high seas.

How big is a 20-foot swell? Taller than the average two-story house, over three times the size of the average man. Big enough to sweep you away forever if you should be so silly as to go near the ocean today. As of 6:53 a.m., the local swell was running 20 feet at 21 seconds – so, not only big, but powerful big with deceptive lulls in between sets. Looks flat? Wait a minute before you walk out on that jetty. Don't be that guy. The next set is on its way.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SURF ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL OF 20 TO 23 FEET WILL PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES OF 25 TO 30 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ON WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND THE BIGGEST SETS COULD BUILD TO NEAR 35 FEET.

Of course, the opportunity to see such big waves shouldn't be missed. Just do it somewhere safe. From up above around the Trinidad area, for example. Or from the dunes – not the jetties – bookending the Humboldt Bay harbor entrance. To be really, extra, totally clear: stay back. Need to walk your dog? Consider staying on the bay side of things or taking a forest trail instead of hitting the beach. High tide's at 9:10 a.m. today, low's at 3:31 p.m. Plan accordingly.

SURVIVAL IN THE FRIGID AND TURBULENT WATER IS UNLIKELY.

You could also just play it safe, wait till Nov. 13 and check out some these waves instead:

 

 

It's that time of year again -- time for predictions, the fun part of election season! We'll all be back tomorrow night to live-blog the holy hell out of the election night parties as the results pour in, but the blather begins now.

I've given up hectoring people, but I will issue a friendly reminder. If you have any inclination to vote in this election, tomorrow's your last day. If you're unsure of your polling place, contact the Humboldt County Office of Elections. Caveat emptor: Please, please do not take anything below as evidence that the election is already over -- my lifetime record as a prognosticator is a B- at best. (See here and here and here.)

With that...

STATE

Prop. 19.

I say it's going to pass, despite recent shlumpy poll numbers. Maybe I'm fooling myself, but I want to believe that the Broadus Effect is real. Let's give it a 52-48 margin of victory statewide. Certainly Humboldt County is going to flop big for it, self-interest be damned. I'm saying it's a 57-43 vote in the county, with a lot of industry types joining the rump conservative establishment in a mostly futile attempt to keep government-sponsored price control efforts in place.

Governor.

Moonbeam. A great Silicon Valley fortune squandered.

Senator.

Bad news for Krazy Karly: Babs is back.

COUNTY

Fourth District Supervisor.

Ignoring the long odds, incumbent Bonnie Neely has only stepped up her campaign since the primary. No dice, however: There was just too much ground to make up. Look for Virginia Bass to win over the bulk of the Jeff Leonard vote, and also to benefit from a likely Measure N GOTV effort. Neely has undoubtedly fired up her own base and is an incomparable political fighter, but with only 30 percent of the vote at the primary it just doesn't look good. Bass, 58-42.

Fifth District Supervisor.

Hoo boy, tough one! Start with the numbers from the June election: Ryan Sundberg, 39 percent; Patrick Cleary, 31 percent; Pat Higgins, 26.6 percent. One would have naturally expected most of the Higgins voters to go to Cleary, coming as they do from the leftish side of the aisle. But Cleary needs around 60 percent of the Higgins vote to go his way if he expects to take this thing, and there is some doubt that he can actually pull that off. Sundberg, a McKinleyville native and a leader of the Trinidad Rancheria, seems to have won the ground battle; his signs are everywhere. Some prominent enviro types -- Patty Clary and Bill Kier -- are in Sundberg's camp. The candidate has more personal connections in the district, and the fact that he would be the first county supervisor of Native American descent could be a powerful pull in the county's most Native district.

Still, I think that Cleary is going to come out on top. He's been working the hustings, and people who meet him mostly seem to like what they hear. He'll get the Higgins 60 percent, and other assorted factors -- mostly the historically larger turnout in general elections -- will play in his favor. I'm gonna call it for Cleary, 52-48.

District Attorney.

It was pretty close to neck-and-neck in the primary, with Paul Gallegos at 40 percent and Allison Jackson at 37. Then you have the third- and fourth-place finishers: Paul Hagen at 18 percent, Kathleen Bryson at 4. Let's give the Bryson vote to Jackson and call it even. Hagen voters are technocratic liberals, mostly Arcata-based. Where do they go?

It's still heresy to say it out loud, but the great secret of the Gallegos constituency is how many people in the camp are, truth be told, sick to death of the man. I have seen radical lefty Humboldt State professors roll their eyes and gag when his name comes up. I have talked to more than one person on his endorsement list who half-hates himself for allowing his name to be used. The question is: What will these people do in the privacy of the voting booth?

My guess is that they will vote Gallegos. The more self-aware of them will live with a certain level of self-loathing for the next four years, but they will do it nonetheless. At this point, Gallegos is not so much a politician or a prosecutor as the transubstantiated spirit of prog rule, the God that holds the good ol' boys at bay. He must be propitiated. This factor, combined with the fact that the immensely sketchy though always capable Richard Salzman is running his campaign, combined with the fact that the Jackson political team is nowhere near as bloodthirsty or ruthless or competent, means that Gallegos takes this sucker 52-48.

Side note: If this were Hagen v. Gallegos right now, you'd be looking at a very different equation. Many lefties would be giving themselves permission to sin, and law-and-order voters would still have a candidate who would take them seriously. Hagen would take this thing in a walk. Wise up, conservatives.

Assessor.

The question is whether the $100,000-plus dollars that SoHum political figure Johanna Rodoni has raised and spent to win this downticket office will overcome the fact that Mari Wilson has "assistant assessor" next to her name on the ballot. The latter is all that a huge number of people will know about this huge snoozer of an office, and that huge number will vote accordingly.

I say that her vast expenditures and name recognition win the day for Rodoni this time around. Rodoni, 53-47.

CITY RACES

Measure N.

I haven't seen any polling numbers, but the people who have are either giddy with the smell of certain victory or else resigned to crushing defeat. It wasn't even fought. Ever ask yourself why? Let's be (ahem) conservative and say Measure N wins 60-40.

Eureka Mayor.

Peter LaVallee is an uplifting sort of soul who somehow comes off like a big-city mayor, and is fondly remembered by many for his fighting spirit during his last tenure in this office, when the Eureka culture war was at its highest pitch. However, the preternaturally cool and collected, somehow Zen-like Frank Jager is now accustomed to slicing through challengers like butter, and I don't expect this to be an exception. Jager, 58-42.

Eureka City Council.

First Ward. Yes, all signs point to a conservative year in Eureka politics, but you'd have to be out of your gourd to imagine that Marian Brady has a shot against the local number two enemy of God, country and capitalism, Larry Glass (next only to Bonnie Neely, above). Marina Center and Measure N be damned: Glass has built bridges all over town, and has built a solid reputation for his devotion to public safety and civic engagement. As amply documented in these pages, Brady may be on the side of the voters regarding Marina Center, but it's an issue that not that many people care about deeply and truly. She hasn't offered much else. Glass, 56-44.

Third Ward. When Ron Kuhnel ran against incumbent Jeff Leonard four years ago, the vote was so close that it took weeks to declare a winner. That alone should have put him in a Glass-like position to take the race against a not-so-well-known man who moved into the neighborhood to satisfy the requirements for office, despite the conservative color of the season. Eureka voters don't pay attention to political machines nearly as much as those machines would like.

But Mike Newman has the X-Factor: Xandra Manns, a lefty third candidate who should siphon enough votes away from Kuhnel to put Newman over the top. Give Newman a few points as a side result of Measure N's probable GOTV effort, subtract a few for his lower profile (as compared with Leonard), and then take a whole chunk away from Kuhnel and give them to Manns. You're looking at something like: Newman, 47; Kuhnel, 45; Manns, 8.

Arcata City Council.

Dave Meserve is gonna retake his seat.

Fortuna City Council.

Damned if it doesn't seem like liberal Janelle Egger might have a shot, despite everything.