Bankers’ Lunch: Second Course

Our unemployment rate hasn’t responded the way it did in the ‘80s. We’re far more insulated to the timber industry than we were back then.

Bruner: We were so dependent on timber back then. We’re more diversified.

Cleary: The February unemployment rate was 6.9 percent.

Bruner: It’s usually about one, one and a half above California.

Cleary: Only over the last five years. Over the ‘90s, it was consistently higher than California.

One of the things that I think is there’s a coming shift in Humboldt County — not only in Humboldt County, in a lot of rural counties — the entry-level workforce is going to decline over the next couple of years. Because the number of kids coming out of school is going to decline. You have 1,600 kids right now in the 12th grade. And then you’ve got basically, in the sixth grade, 1,200 kids. A certain portion of those are going to drop out, so you’re looking at about 30 percent decline in high school graduation coming over the next six years.

In addition you have the baby boomers starting to retire. So you have a replacement workforce needed. And, you know, what you are hearing a lot more in Humboldt County, which you never used to hear, is not that there are no jobs but that there are no employees to fill the jobs. That is a profound shift in our local economy.

It’s true in a lot of rural communities. And there’s an element … a certain percent of the youth is always going to migrate to the city. The population of the United States has gone to primarily an urban population over the last hundred years. Right, Thomas?

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