Monday, June 2, 2008

My Crystal Ball

Posted by on Mon, Jun 2, 2008 at 12:00 PM

First of all: Vote Tuesday! And on Tuesday night, keep it tuned to the Blogthing for full election night coverage.

Now. I'll admit up front that my track record is only so-so. In my own personal win column: Gallegos (recall), Gallegos (reelection), Chris Kerrigan (Eureka City Council, 2004), Mike Wilson (Bay District, 2005). Losses: Rodoni (Supes primary, 2004), Virginia Bass (Eureka Mayor, 2006), Jeff Leonard (Eureka City Council, 2006).

I can't help myself, though. And here's the rules -- if you want to call me a fool, or accuse me of being in the pocket of this faction or that, you have to post your own predictions for all to see.

FIRST DISTRICT

Jimmy Smith 54%
John Vevoda 46%

SECOND DISTRICT

Clif Clendenen 24%
Estelle Fennell 29%
Roger Rodoni 47%

THIRD DISTRICT

Mark Lovelace 51%
Paul Pitino 15%
Bryan Plumley 34%


The First and Third I feel in my bunions. Jimmy Smith is too well liked and highly regarded to succumb to what has been a hotly ideological though somewhat lackluster Vevoda campaign. In the Third District, Lovelace has the correct politics, lots of name recognition, endorsements from all the key political factions and a serious campaign organization. It should be enough to beat the more conservative Plumley camp, despite a relatively strong showing from the universally beloved Pitino, without the need for a November runoff.

The Second District is more complicated. My gut tells me that Rodoni will win outright and Fennell will place third, and maybe I should stick with my gut. But being a man of reason I spent some time with the calculator this morning, and this is what I came up with. It assumes that Fennell will win half of SoHum and Rodoni and Clendenen will split the other half. It assumes, further, that Rodoni will win 65 percent of the northern end of the district, and the rest of the northern end will split 2:1 for Clendenen and Fennell, respectively.

I think one key indicator tomorrow night will be: Does Fennell actually win half of SoHum? The only way she doesn't, I think, is if the SoHum reggae wars are actually deeper and more poisonous than they have seemed to be (which is pretty poisonous already). Before the Reggae Wars, Fennell was pretty much universally respected down there. Somehow in this election the principal SoHum lefties have divided along Reggae lines, with the Peoples Productions faction backing Fennell and the Mateel faction backing Clendenen. But does this translate to folks with no particular dog in the fight? Or does everyone have a dog in the fight?

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Hank Sims

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